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 Pyramid Plunder Success rate 
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Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:11 pm
Posts: 26
RSN: Gemeos2
Post Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Hey,

As some people might know, I'm working in getting 200m Thieving XP. I took the oportunity to make some research!

I have been working in a project to determine the success rate of opening urns at the two last rooms in Pyramid plunder, as much accurate as possible...

It also seems that the accuracy in both rooms is the same, take a look:

Room 7:
Data points 2504
Total hits 1705
Total Miss 799
Accuracy 0.6809
Error 0.0183
Lower Bound 0.6627
Upper Bound 0.6992

Room 8:
Data points 2717
Total hits 1870
Total Miss 847
Accuracy 0.6883
Error 0.0174
Lower Bound 0.6708
Upper Bound 0.7057


Middle chest at room 6:
Data points 145
Total hits 127
Total miss 18
Accuracy 0.8759
Error 0.0537
Lower Bound 0.8222
Upper Bound 0.9295

Middle chest at room 7:
Data points 144
Total hits 116
Total miss 28
Accuracy 0.8056
Error 0.0646
Lower Bound 0.7409
Upper Bound 0.8702


Middle chest at room 8:
Data points 144
Total hits 115
Total fails 29
Accuracy 0.7986
Error 0.0655
Lower Bound 0.7331
Upper Bound 0.8641


--
Special thanks to:
[*]Thai guy
[*]Xensure
[*]Hedgehog

--
I'm not done yet. I'll keep trying to add data until I am 200m XP.
Link to my spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... DhWWVlLd2c


Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:09 am
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Between 100 and 145 on your room 7 sheet, you have a bunch of hits but no misses. When this is corrected, room 7 and 8 have similar accuracy.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... jakE#gid=0

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Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:53 am
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
It would be awesome if they had the same success rate

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Mon Feb 20, 2012 1:41 pm
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RSN: Gemeos2
Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Hedgehog wrote:
Between 100 and 145 on your room 7 sheet, you have a bunch of hits but no misses. When this is corrected, room 7 and 8 have similar accuracy.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... jakE#gid=0


If were that what you meant in Tip.it, why didn't you said it so clear like you said where?...

Thanks a lot. Just edited my first post. =)


Mon Feb 20, 2012 5:20 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Thai guy wrote:
It would be awesome if they had the same success rate


Well if you Z test of proportions you get a Z-score of -0.5749 which means that the two population means only different significantly at the 71.5% confidence level which basically means that they are not significantly different. Most people wont even consider data unless it is significantly different at least at the 90% confidence level. There is an equality of variance assumption implied here which I did not test for, but I am not too worried about that in this scenario.

So this suggests that in fact you have the same chance of success on any given urn loot (click) on both floors 7 and 8.

This isn't really needed for any usefulness, but would be an interesting incite in to how Jagex constructed PP. Here is the real question would someone be willing to sacrifice some xp and loot urns on floor 1 and record hit/misses. And then I can run an ANVOA and get contrasts of the average of floors 7&8 vs floor 1 and see if you have the same probability of success on any given floor. This would mean that Jagex just programmed PP so that at specific thief levels you can access a new floor which give more xp/urn, but you don't have any better/worse chance of successfully looting any given urn.

Jagex Logic FTW.


Mon Feb 20, 2012 9:09 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
If nothing else, we can get a better idea of the accuracy in less time.

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Mon Feb 20, 2012 9:23 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
I'm also wondering if the success rate even change according to the lvl or if it's one more "Jagex Logic" case...


Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:28 am
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
There isnt a need for them to change accuracy through the rooms i dont know why you think that is illogical. They increase the xp per action by a certain amount that doesnt mean it is necessary to reduce the success rate aswell.
Mining works perfectly well with the same accuracy on each pickaxe.

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Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:09 am
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Thai guy wrote:
There isnt a need for them to change accuracy through the rooms i dont know why you think that is illogical. They increase the xp per action by a certain amount that doesnt mean it is necessary ro reduce the success rate aswell.
Mining works perfectly well with the same accuracy on each pickaxe.

It's just interesting because you think higher level = higher defense. I'd also like to see if level affects accuracy. I'll be doing pp in a few weeks to test this, but I won't get enough data before I level to make any conclusions.

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Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:16 am
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Hedgehog wrote:
Thai guy wrote:
There isnt a need for them to change accuracy through the rooms i dont know why you think that is illogical. They increase the xp per action by a certain amount that doesnt mean it is necessary ro reduce the success rate aswell.
Mining works perfectly well with the same accuracy on each pickaxe.

It's just interesting because you think higher level = higher defense. I'd also like to see if level affects accuracy. I'll be doing pp in a few weeks to test this, but I won't get enough data before I level to make any conclusions.

Hmm that would make pp more like dungeoneering where xp only increases as you go up floors rather than by level.

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Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:22 am
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Thai guy wrote:
Hedgehog wrote:
Thai guy wrote:
There isnt a need for them to change accuracy through the rooms i dont know why you think that is illogical. They increase the xp per action by a certain amount that doesnt mean it is necessary ro reduce the success rate aswell.
Mining works perfectly well with the same accuracy on each pickaxe.

It's just interesting because you think higher level = higher defense. I'd also like to see if level affects accuracy. I'll be doing pp in a few weeks to test this, but I won't get enough data before I level to make any conclusions.

Hmm that would make pp more like dungeoneering where xp only increases as you go up floors rather than by level.

And when I think about it, I don't recall anyone noting a difference in xp between say 91 and 95; only between the levels where you unlock a new room.

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Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:31 am
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Thai guy wrote:
There isnt a need for them to change accuracy through the rooms i dont know why you think that is illogical. They increase the xp per action by a certain amount that doesnt mean it is necessary to reduce the success rate aswell.
Mining works perfectly well with the same accuracy on each pickaxe.


I suppose there really isn't a need for the urns to get harder as you go up floors since they scale the xp how they do. I just suppose it seems counter-intuitive. Usually as your level goes up you "succeed" more often at lower level tasks.

Also one note for Geomos. When collecting this data I am sure that you didn't record every single urn and that is fine. However, if you say looted and urn, failed, and recorded that fail, but then didn't record any subsequent fails until the success or the success its self on that urn during that specific looting "session" you would be gathering the data improperly and that would mean you would have to pretty much throw everything out unless you know for which urns that you starting recording hit/misses you finished.

Basically for these error statistics to be correct once you start recording the fails on a urn you must record all fails up to and including the success. However if you neglect to record any number of urns all together that is fine. Those are just missed opportunities for data collection, but would not effect any of the statistical work and obviously you can't record every urn because that would slow down your xp/hr, but once you start with any given urn you must see it through.

This may seem rather trivial and/or obvious, but it fulfills a pivotal underlying assumption in these types of statistical analysis.


Tue Feb 21, 2012 9:58 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Room 1
377 hits
153 misses
0.711 accuracy
3.9% error

Looks like its constant fail rate or very small change

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Wed Feb 22, 2012 11:36 am
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
F-test of multiple means confirms it. All of the floors have the same probability of success on any given urn, given 99 thieving (we still don't know if thieving level effects the rate.)

So this confirms the long standing method of running straight to the top two floors and clearing all of the urns there. This makes perfect sense based on these results. Not really a shocking or revolutionary discovery since this is already what is the generally accepted fastest method of PP, but it is always nice to have things confirmed by math.


Wed Feb 22, 2012 1:39 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
I think zarfot's thieving guide says that accuracy does not change with level but it would be nice for meredith to verify this. If this is the case then the entire pyramid plunder game has an accuracy of ~75%

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Wed Feb 22, 2012 4:05 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
I think I'll try to do some room 1 runs tonight. Cbf waiting a few more weeks to figure this out :p

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Wed Feb 22, 2012 5:34 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Quote:
Room 1, 90 thieving

Code:
00011001011100001100001000110101110001010000000000001000000001000110001000100001110001001000100000000001000000000000
1000100000010000010010000000001000101010100011100100011000010010001100000000000000000010000


156 Hits
51 Misses
207 Data points

75.3%

I'll definitely get more data points, but things are looking pretty good.


Code:
000110010111000011000010001101011100010100000000000010000000010001100010001000011100010010001000000000010000000000
001000100000010000010010000000001000101010100011100100011000010010001100000000000000000010000010000101001111100000011011
1101000010001110010100000000011100010100100010000110100101100101000000011100001000100001000010011000000000111100


246 Hits
100 Misses
346 Data points

71.1%

Someone hug me

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Wed Feb 22, 2012 7:18 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
No worries Meredith. Thai misspoke when he said 75% he means 70% or maybe even 69% since that is everyone favorite number. Geomos has 68% and 68.8% for floors 7 and 8. if we expect all floors to be the same than your data is headed in the right direction.

Or maybe Thai meant 75% as an average between the urns at around 68-70% and the middle chests which seems to be around 80%


Wed Feb 22, 2012 11:24 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
I'm really happy to watch people interested in this project. I thought I was alone =P

Xensure,

xensure wrote:
Also one note for Geomos. When collecting this data I am sure that you didn't record every single urn and that is fine. However, if you say looted and urn, failed, and recorded that fail, but then didn't record any subsequent fails until the success or the success its self on that urn during that specific looting "session" you would be gathering the data improperly and that would mean you would have to pretty much throw everything out unless you know for which urns that you starting recording hit/misses you finished.


I logged every game since the beguining to the end. So yea, I guess I am doing it properly. But that was a good note for the people that are helping. =)

@offquote: Since people are interested in this project (and I'm very suprised), I'll go back to logging data. I'll update my first post once I atleast got 3k data points in each room :P (Then 3.5k... then 4k... etc =P)


Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:20 am
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Hedgehog wrote:
Someone hug me

:Iloveyou:

And sorry, I missunderstood what the output of the error formula was so it is 0.711 +-0.039 not +-0.039%

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Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:28 pm
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