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 Pyramid Plunder Success rate 
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Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:11 pm
Posts: 26
RSN: Gemeos2
Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
I put data from room 7 and 8 together and got this results:

Data points 5321
Total hits 3646
Total Miss 1675
Accuracy 0.685209547077617
Error 0.012479061378776
Lower Bound 0.672730485698841
Upper Bound 0.697688608456393


We have this data about Room 1 so far:
Data points 876
Total hits 623
Total Miss 253
Accuracy 0.711187214611872
Error 0.030012639799454
Lower Bound 0.681174574812418
Upper Bound 0.741199854411326


I tried to put Room 1 data, Room 7 data and Room 8 data together and look to what I got:
Data points 6197
Total hits 4269
Total Miss 1928
Accuracy 0.688881716959819
Error 0.011526578685784
Lower Bound 0.677355138274036
Upper Bound 0.700408295645603


Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:45 pm
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Joined: Mon May 30, 2011 11:31 am
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Yeah I think Jagex may like the number 69 :P or it could actually be a fractional number which would suggest that thieving level may effect the success rate. If thieving level did effect it they would have some function governing. Or they would have the "dice" rolls gain different weights based on level, and that would result in fractional numbers.


Thu Feb 23, 2012 3:27 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Accuracy 0.6+ (floor(level/10))/100

What food do skillers use for thieving? Maybe I'll do some testing on my fishing account if I cba to get 21 thieving lol.

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Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:05 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Jagex likes to use two dice when something can either hit or miss, so they probably used that here as well.

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Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:29 pm
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RSN: Gemeos2
Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Thai guy wrote:
Accuracy 0.6+ (floor(level/10))/100

What food do skillers use for thieving? Maybe I'll do some testing on my fishing account if I cba to get 21 thieving lol.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoIe0-4ITzo


Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:41 am
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
At level 21-27 100 misses, 82 hits.
I got 26 misses in 1 trip, the chance of that is 1 in 500k with an accuracy of 0.7

Someone hug me

Ok its not that many data points so maybe I dont get a hug from xensure but its pretty obvious to me that its beyond unlucky.

Maybe accuracy increases every 10th level which would explain why some people have found accuracy to be constant with level, they probably logged during 91-99.

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Fri Feb 24, 2012 4:34 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Oh that's interesting... Does it work same way with other skills?


Sat Feb 25, 2012 9:29 am
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Do we still need data, or can I get 95 thieving without logging anything?

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Sat Mar 03, 2012 10:36 am
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 10:45 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Nothing to do with success rate but for me personally.

When doing PP should I be checking for snakes or not bothering. I'm not entirely sure about the best method.


Sat Mar 03, 2012 3:30 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Hedgehog wrote:
Do we still need data, or can I get 95 thieving without logging anything?

Well we showed that accuracy does change with level. Don't feel obliged to test it.

@Vex I'm almost certain that checking for snakes is a waste. I've seen in number1boss's videos when he check for snakes he can still fail

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Sat Mar 03, 2012 4:53 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Searching/looting is like 3 or 4 ticks right? So it should be easy to calculate how much searching would need to increase the accuracy by in order for it to be worth it.

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Sun Mar 04, 2012 10:09 am
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Hedgehog wrote:
Searching/looting is like 3 or 4 ticks right? So it should be easy to calculate how much searching would need to increase the accuracy by in order for it to be worth it.


Well say searching and looting both take 4 ticks then...

(4 ticks/attempt) / (0.69 successes/attempt) = 5.797 ticks/success on average.

Therefore:

(4+4)/x > 5.797

x= 1.38

So if the true success rate is 69% at level 99 then at level 99 searching for snake will not be worth the time involved even if it increases the success rate to 100%.
**this is just for the 4 and 4 tick example**

In the general case it would be

(a+b)/x > (a/.69)

Where:
a = the ticks per attempt of looting an urn.
b = the ticks per attempt of searching an urn.
x = the successful looting percentage after searching the urn.


Mon Mar 05, 2012 3:42 pm
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Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:11 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Just checking for snakes is 2 ticks. Open the chest is 4 ticks. If you check then open, makes a total of 6 ticks. If you just open and be lucky to get it in the first attemp, 4 ticks.


Sat Mar 10, 2012 11:45 am
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
In that case you'd need to be 103% accuracy looting urns after searching them.

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Sat Mar 10, 2012 11:53 am
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
Forgot to mention that if you fail, you lose more 2 ticks while it shows the "fail" animation.


Sat Mar 10, 2012 12:13 pm
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Post Re: Pyramid Plunder Success rate
PP routes used in calculations.

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Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:43 pm
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