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 Farming Research 
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Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 9:40 am
Posts: 1216
RSN: Meredith
Post Farming Research
Paul wrote:
I wrote a little farming calculator that gives cost and estimated time to 99. I have never used Google Docs until today, so I'm not sure if anyone can edit it and save it. I have a backup at any rate.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuA_RiEopQW6dHY0d3FNUlBaQW40VW1JQWI0R2ZQRkE


Leaf wrote:
Hedgehog wrote:
I would love data on individual harvests. Ideally, it'd be logged w/o juju, but if you used juju pots, I can just factor that in, I guess.



Here's my data, with 60 data points


I currently have no plans to do more farming, so that's probably all I'll ever have.



Paul wrote:
You had some very amazing luck for 60 runs, especially in deaths (which obviously means you had much higher harvests... 3.2 herbs more per run :o ); though you had fairly bad luck when it came to seeds back. What is your farming level and what herb was that?

Anyways, here is the tally of yours and mine:

Range:
5-17 base; 0-7 juju; 5-24 total (it's amazing that I set my record of a 24 harvest and leaf also had a 24 harvest.. both were 17+7)

Mode of 7+2

Average:
Trollheim---7.9+2.5
Other four---6.9+2.3
Total---7.1+2.4


Hedgehog wrote:
I need a list of how many patches yielded 5, 6, 7, etc. herbs.

5 Herbs: 10 patches
6 herbs: 30 patches
7 herbs: 100 patches

etc.

I can do it myself, but I won't have the free time to do so for quite a while.


Paul wrote:
I see what you mean... it took me a few hours to find the function I needed, organize my data differently so that I could make an array, and type it all up. Respect to Grimy and the other Google Docs people for all they do; I've spent probably 15 hours on various farming calcs and loggers, and it sure makes me appreciate all the complicated and lengthy spreadsheets. :Thumbsup: It sure is addicting though.

Herb Distribution


Hedgehog wrote:
Image

Clearly not a simple RNG



Paul wrote:
Dumping this here for anyone that is interested. Yes, my luck since I started greenfinger's aura is pathetic; however, my sample size is still pretty small.

Data on Greenfingers

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Sat Feb 25, 2012 4:13 pm
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Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:11 pm
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RSN: Gemeos2
Post Re: Farming Research
Paul wrote:
Dumping this here for anyone that is interested. Yes, my luck since I started greenfinger's aura is pathetic; however, my sample size is still pretty small.

Data on Greenfingers


Using the document above and my data (mine almost didn't make any impact), I got this results:

Total seeds used 3,320
Total herbs haverested 33,970
Seeds back 318
Herbs average/run 51.2
Number of runs 664
Seeds back average/run 0.10

Herbs
Average 51.2
Error 0.2
Lower bound 51.08
Upper bound 51.24

Seeds
Data points 3,320
Average 0.10
Error 0.013
Lower bound 0.09
Upper bound 0.10

I only took into account the herb patchs that didn't die. Going by this data and calculations, the formula to calculate profit/run using remote farming spell is:
((51.2*herb)-(5*seed)+(0.5*seed))

Link to my spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... UVmMGV1Nmc


Special thanks to Xensure for helping me calculating the error.

If not using remote farming spell, you should use this formula:
((45*herb)-(5*seed)+(0.43*seed)


Sat Feb 25, 2012 5:15 pm
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Post Re: Farming Research
I don't know often herb patches die, but if you want to include the probability of them dying in to your confidence interval for porfit. You would use the error for a proportion like thieving and then multiply the upper bound from that to the upper bound of profit and the low bound to the lower bound.


Mon Feb 27, 2012 1:16 pm
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RSN: Grimy Bunyip
Post Re: Farming Research
well i got 23 deaths in 232 herb plantings from my own data log.
that's a 95% confidence interval of 6.69%-13.1% death rate.
so about 10% deaths.
how many growth cycles do herbs undergo? 4 or 5? wiki says 4 but, who knows.
either way it's about 2%-2.5% chance of disease per cycle it seems.

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Mon Feb 27, 2012 2:59 pm
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Post Re: Farming Research
Grimy Bunyip wrote:
well i got 23 deaths in 232 herb plantings from my own data log.
that's a 95% confidence interval of 6.69%-13.1% death rate.
so about 10% deaths.
how many growth cycles do herbs undergo? 4 or 5? wiki says 4 but, who knows.
either way it's about 2%-2.5% chance of disease per cycle it seems.

There are 5 stages. However, there are 3 opportunities for death. This is because in order for death to occur, the plant must already have been diseased for one cycle, so the last stage cannot be affected, furthermore the first stage cannot become diseased, since no farming ticks are received.

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Mon Feb 27, 2012 3:10 pm
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Post Re: Farming Research
Herbs are four 20 minute cycles for a total of 80 minutes.

Cycles are done as:
Flowers run on a 4 5 min cycles.
Herbs run on 4 20 min cycles

You can grow something in '3' cycles if you plant just before a cycle.

E:
Let's say you plant at 4:00.
1st growth is at 4:20
2nd growth is at 4:40
3rd growth is at 5:00
Ready for harvest at 5:20

Let's say you plant at 4:19.
Same scenario.

Let's say you plant at 3:59.
1st growth is at 4:00
2nd at 4:20
3rd at 4:40
Harvest at 5:00.

E2:
Plants can only die if diseased as stated just above.
If they are diseased they did not undergo the growth cycle. If you cure them of disease you will have to wait an additional growth cycle.
I remote farmed based off of farming cycles for 86-->99 Farming. I never allowed anything to be diseased for more than one cycle so I am unsure if you can disease twice (Healthy-->Diseased-->Still diseased-->death) or if the process goes "Healthy->Diseased-->Death".

(This is assuming server lag hasn't thrown off the farm cycles. Farm cycles run starting from 00:00 GMT and depending on how many ticks the server lost can throw off farm runs to as much as 3-5 minutes later in the (GMT timezone) day.

Farming just after an update on a world not burdened with so many things (W77 for example is a horrible world to farm on) can help you test the farm cycles if you like.

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Mon Feb 27, 2012 3:17 pm
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Post Re: Farming Research
WTC117 wrote:
Herbs are four 20 minute cycles for a total of 80 minutes.

Cycles are done as:
Flowers run on a 4 5 min cycles.
Herbs run on 4 20 min cycles

You can grow something in '3' cycles if you plant just before a cycle.

E:
Let's say you plant at 4:00.
1st growth is at 4:20
2nd growth is at 4:40
3rd growth is at 5:00
Ready for harvest at 5:20

Let's say you plant at 4:19.
Same scenario.

Let's say you plant at 3:59.
1st growth is at 4:00
2nd at 4:20
3rd at 4:40
Harvest at 5:00.

(This is assuming server lag hasn't thrown off the farm cycles. Farm cycles run starting from 00:00 GMT last I farmed. Don't see why Jagex would change it =P )

That's not exactly how it works. There are 7 types of server cycles: 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, and 320 minutes (I think the jade vine actually has a 740 one, but that's more or less irrelevant). These cycles loop throughout the day, starting at 00:00 GMT. Each type of plant is synced with one of these cycles. Herbs, for example, are synced with the 20 minute cycles.

Each of these cycles can be divided into two parts: growth windows and no growth periods. The growth windows make up the last five minutes of the server cycle, and the no growth period is made up of everything else (the first 15 minutes of a 20 minute cycle).

The last piece of the puzzle are farming ticks. Contrary to popular belief, farming ticks are not the same thing as growth cycles, but rather a tick that occurs every 501 normal ticks (5 minutes and .6 seconds). Farming ticks are synced to the player. In other words, every 501 ticks from the start of your session, a farming tick occurs.

When everything is put together, you have 8 things looping continuously; the 7 server cycles and farming ticks. Therefore, it stands to reason that more than one will occur at a time. When a farming tick occurs during a no-growth period, nothing happens. However, when a farming tick occurs during the growth window (the last five minutes of the server cycle), the plant will either advance to the next stage or become diseased. If a farming tick occurs during the next growth window, the plant will either grow again/become diseased, or die if it was already diseased.

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Mon Feb 27, 2012 3:42 pm
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Post Re: Farming Research
do we have cycle information on all the crop patches?

I don't really know too much about them, but apparently there are a few exceptions to the 4 cycle thing according to rs wiki.
I'll look into them later, I'm gonna keep the links here for reading though.
http://runescape.wikia.com/wiki/Talk:Farming
http://runescape.wikia.com/wiki/User:Zi ... wth_Cycles
http://runescape.wikia.com/wiki/Seed_Table

are these accurate?
there's some talk of curry tree cycles being shorter.

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Mon Feb 27, 2012 3:48 pm
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Post Re: Farming Research
Hedgehog wrote:
That's not exactly how it works. There are 7 types of server cycles: 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, and 320 minutes (I think the jade vine actually has a 740 one, but that's more or less irrelevant). These cycles loop throughout the day, starting at 00:00 GMT. Each type of plant is synced with one of these cycles. Herbs, for example, are synced with the 20 minute cycles.

Each of these cycles can be divided into two parts: growth windows and no growth periods. The growth windows make up the last five minutes of the server cycle, and the no growth period is made up of everything else (the first 15 minutes of a 20 minute cycle).

The last piece of the puzzle are farming ticks. Contrary to popular belief, farming ticks are not the same thing as growth cycles, but rather a tick that occurs every 501 normal ticks (5 minutes and .6 seconds). Farming ticks are synced to the player. In other words, every 501 ticks from the start of your session, a farming tick occurs.

When everything is put together, you have 8 things looping continuously; the 7 server cycles and farming ticks. Therefore, it stands to reason that more than one will occur at a time. When a farming tick occurs during a no-growth period, nothing happens. However, when a farming tick occurs during the growth window (the last five minutes of the server cycle), the plant will either advance to the next stage or become diseased. If a farming tick occurs during the next growth window, the plant will either grow again/become diseased, or die if it was already diseased.


Assuming the farming tick theory is correct and it starts counting from the beginning of your session - and planting is done via server cycles but the growth happens on a farm tick. It should be possible to cut off the last 5 minutes of each growth period (the last 5 minutes of the 20 minute cycle) if you sign in 3-5 minutes before that period. Or I'm completely misunderstanding this.

EG:
Farm Cycle Window @ 4:55 - 5:00
You sign in @ 4:52
501 ticks later @ 4:57 the herb should grow as a farm tick happening during the growth period window.

However...how does a farm tick happen when you aren't signed in? You have no session then. Or does it merely keep ticking away and resets (resynchs) when you begin a new session?

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Mon Feb 27, 2012 4:07 pm
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Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 9:40 am
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RSN: Meredith
Post Re: Farming Research
WTC117 wrote:
Hedgehog wrote:
That's not exactly how it works. There are 7 types of server cycles: 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, and 320 minutes (I think the jade vine actually has a 740 one, but that's more or less irrelevant). These cycles loop throughout the day, starting at 00:00 GMT. Each type of plant is synced with one of these cycles. Herbs, for example, are synced with the 20 minute cycles.

Each of these cycles can be divided into two parts: growth windows and no growth periods. The growth windows make up the last five minutes of the server cycle, and the no growth period is made up of everything else (the first 15 minutes of a 20 minute cycle).

The last piece of the puzzle are farming ticks. Contrary to popular belief, farming ticks are not the same thing as growth cycles, but rather a tick that occurs every 501 normal ticks (5 minutes and .6 seconds). Farming ticks are synced to the player. In other words, every 501 ticks from the start of your session, a farming tick occurs.

When everything is put together, you have 8 things looping continuously; the 7 server cycles and farming ticks. Therefore, it stands to reason that more than one will occur at a time. When a farming tick occurs during a no-growth period, nothing happens. However, when a farming tick occurs during the growth window (the last five minutes of the server cycle), the plant will either advance to the next stage or become diseased. If a farming tick occurs during the next growth window, the plant will either grow again/become diseased, or die if it was already diseased.


Assuming the farming tick theory is correct and it starts counting from the beginning of your session - and planting is done via server cycles but the growth happens on a farm tick. It should be possible to cut off the last 5 minutes of each growth period (the last 5 minutes of the 20 minute cycle) if you sign in 3-5 minutes before that period. Or I'm completely misunderstanding this.

EG:
Farm Cycle Window @ 4:55 - 5:00
You sign in @ 4:52
501 ticks later @ 4:57 the herb should grow as a farm tick happening during the growth period window.

However...how does a farm tick happen when you aren't signed in? You have no session then. Or does it merely keep ticking away and resets (resynchs) when you begin a new session?

It starts over when you log out/in.

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Mon Feb 27, 2012 4:10 pm
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Post Re: Farming Research
So it should be a simple test of signing in 4 minutes before a growth period and timing the final cycle of my herbs to see if they grow on time. Correct?

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Mon Feb 27, 2012 4:13 pm
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Post Re: Farming Research
Pretty sure Zigzagpaul's already proven it.

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Mon Feb 27, 2012 4:16 pm
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RSN: Lord Paul
Post Re: Farming Research
I don't know if I've posted this, but here is all of my data that I've logged, including 2.3k snapdragon seeds (not all post 99). Master log

I'm currently collecting the data on aura time activation. Just need to figure out how in the world I'm going to relate that to death data. I've only done 36 runs like this, since I need to toss quite a few runs out due to forgetting to screencap the time or other stuff. Thanks for the AHK script btw:
Spoiler:
Code:
^Numpad0::
time=%A_Hour%:%A_Min%:%A_Sec%, %A_MM%/%A_DD%
Fileappend, Activated - %time%`n, herblog.txt
Return


^Numpad1::
time=%A_Hour%:%A_Min%:%A_Sec%, %A_MM%/%A_DD%
Fileappend, Catherby - %time%`n, herblog.txt
Return

^Numpad2::
time=%A_Hour%:%A_Min%:%A_Sec%, %A_MM%/%A_DD%
Fileappend, Phasmatys - %time%`n, herblog.txt.
Return

^Numpad3::
time=%A_Hour%:%A_Min%:%A_Sec%, %A_MM%/%A_DD%
Fileappend, Ardougne - %time%`n, herblog.txt
Return

^Numpad4::
time=%A_Hour%:%A_Min%:%A_Sec%, %A_MM%/%A_DD%
Fileappend, Falador - %time%`n, herblog.txt
Return

^Numpad5::
time=%A_Hour%:%A_Min%:%A_Sec%, %A_MM%/%A_DD%
Fileappend, Trollheim - %time%`n`n, herblog.txt
Return



New distribution data (it's starting to smooth out more.. I've added it to Google Docs):
Image


Edit:
Concerning your torstol profit calculator that you made, I'm curious about your greenfinger data, since you said that ours was fairly close and yet you still go with a 5% harvest increase. I've been posting over in H&A at Tip.It on this topic, and now I'm really curious.

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Tue Feb 28, 2012 3:01 am
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RSN: Lord Paul
Post Re: Farming Research
WHAT
Good lord, I've been stupid..

Anyway, I have like 65 runs logged with timing, and I can't get anything out of it at the moment except my average herb run time (173 seconds).

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Mon Mar 12, 2012 11:59 pm
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Post Re: Farming Research
Math:

Thai, Archer, and I decided to work out the affect of the Greenfingers aura. Archer had gathered 500 data points on deaths without Greenfingers and we calculated the rate of death to be 10.99% to 16.00%.

However, we had to find out the chance of disease per stage (there are 4 stages). Since the crops can only become diseased once, this was a little complicated – we couldn't just take the 4th root and call it a day. We ended up creating the following equation:

Image

Using's Newton's method (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton's_method), we approximated the chance of disease per stage:

Image

Image

The .1099 came from the rate of death stated above.

We used .03 for a (the value doesn't really matter a whole lot) and 2.87%. We repeated this with the upper bound and got 4.24%.

So the chance of an herb patch becoming diseased during any given stage is 2.87-4.24% (3.55%).

Using this information, we were able to calculate the chance of death overall using greenfingers. Since the first stage is immune to disease, there are only 3 chances for disease, so the equation for the odds is:

Image

After substituting the chance of disease per stage in for P, we found the average death rate of when using Greenfingers to be 8.35-12.2%. That's between a 2.64 and a 3.8 percent difference.

Tip: Multiply the percentages by 4/5 to find the average rate of death for all patches, including Trollheim.

Data:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... 255cUJfOUE

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Wed Jun 13, 2012 4:54 pm
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Post Re: Farming Research
I helped with the math :razz:
forming the equation/suggesting how to solve it.

edit. I checked what the other 3 roots of the equation was by dividing f(p) by p-a to get a cubic equation with the remaining 3 roots and repeated the Newton's method to find 1 of the roots of that which was 0.598, obviously the disease rate isnt almost 60%.
Repeating what I did above gets a quadratic with the last 2 roots. Those roots were both non real. -0.1962 +- 2.504i

Just did that to check their wasnt another root like 0.018 which could also be the solution we are looking for.

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Wed Jun 13, 2012 7:37 pm
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Post Re: Farming Research
Thai guy wrote:
I helped with the math :razz:
forming the equation/suggesting how to solve it.

edit. I checked what the other 3 roots of the equation was by dividing f(p) by p-a to get a cubic equation with the remaining 3 roots and repeated the Newton's method to find 1 of the roots of that which was 0.598, obviously the disease rate isnt almost 60%.
Repeating what I did above gets a quadratic with the last 2 roots. Those roots were both non real. -0.1962 +- 2.504i

Just did that to check their wasnt another root like 0.018 which could also be the solution we are looking for.

You did more than help lol

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Wed Jun 13, 2012 8:57 pm
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Post Re: Farming Research
About the 5 minute thing, farm ticks do start over. I've kept a herb patch diseased for 6+ hours logging out and in like that (it enabled quite an useful bug).

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Thu Jun 14, 2012 4:55 am
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Post Re: Farming Research
brunokiller wrote:
About the 5 minute thing, farm ticks do start over. I've kept a herb patch diseased for 6+ hours logging out and in like that (it enabled quite an useful bug).

Ya, farming ticks are tied to the in-game clock, so you can simply log out before it happens to delay it by up to 5 minutes.

Remember, farming ticks only do anything if they occur during a growth window, which occur 3 times and hour for herbs at XX:15-XX:20, XX:35-XX:40, and XX:55:XX00.

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Thu Jun 14, 2012 8:46 am
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Post Re: Farming Research
To see if greenfingers works like a farmer or cures a herb's disease and lets it grow to the next stage at the same time I went back and checked the herb patches after the first growth tick to see if one that got diseased was ever a stage behind the rest. I also didnt use compost to increase their chance of death.
After 63 patches I never found a herb that was on the first stage while the rest were on 2nd. The chance that its a coincidence that none got diseased is (1-0.0355)63= 0.1 so I think that the greenfingers does not work like a farmer.

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Sat Jun 16, 2012 8:31 pm
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